Abstract

Aim and objectives. Ten years ago the recruitment of physicians and nurses to work abroad was increasing in Estonia and we constructed simple models for predicting the structure of the workforce in the case of different scenarios in the supply and professional mobility. The objective of the current study was to describe changes in the number and age structure of nurses and physicians between 2012 and 2012 and to propose adequate enrolment quota for medical and nursing schools.
Methods. Individual data on nurses and physicians registered with the Health Board in April 2021 was matched to a similar list from April 2012, in order to evaluate, according to age, the dynamics of nurses and physicians working in health care institutions in Estonia.
Results. There were 10,259 nurses and midwives working in Estonian health care in 2021, while 12% of them were aged 65 years or older. As compared to 2012, the mean age of nurses had increased by 4 years and the proportion of those over 65 years had doubled. The total number of nurses had increased by 1,487 from 2012, but not because of new graduates from nursing schools. Instead, one half of the increase was due to nurses returning to work in health care and the other half was due to nurses continuing to work even when they reached retirement age.

There were 4,937 physicians working in Estonian health care in 2021, while 25% of them were aged 65 years or older. As compared to 2012, the median age of physicians had increased by two years and the proportion of those over 65 was 17% at that time. The number of physicians under 65 years had decreased, but the total number practising physicians remained at the same level because the majority of physicians continue to work until they reach the age over 70.
Conclusions. In order to reach the average European level of nurses (9 per 1,000) in the Estonian health care system by 2032, it is necessary to double annual admission to nursing schools in the hope that the professional mobility of nurses will not increase.

In order to keep the number of practising physicians in Estonia and to attain a sustainable age structure of physicians, it is necessary to increase the number of medical students, as well as to reduce the professional mobility of physicians.